More Off-Season Analysis

I’ll start this blog with my early predictions for the Eastern Conference NBA playoffs. I think it’ll be the Celtics, 76ers, Pistons, Magic, Wizards, Pacers, Bucks, and Cavaliers. I think it’ll come down to the Celtics and Magic. The Cavs and Wizards will round out the top 4. Dwight Howard is going to have an off-the-charts type of year. Overall, the East was tough to predict. In the West it was hard to exclude some teams from the playoff predictions but in the East it’s hard to include some. It could easily be the Hawks instead of the Pacers, or the Nets instead of the Bucks. Some of the teams have changed so much that it’ll be tough to gauge the progress or lack thereof until they have 20 games under their belt. I’ll probably have updated predictions at the beginning of the season and then around at Christmas break. There are still trades and free agent signings that will make some difference.

A couple other off-season moves to note:

The Nets lost Richard Jefferson and DeSagana Diop but added Yi Jianlain, Bobby Simmons, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes, and Eduardo Najera. I actually think the talent level slightly decreased but they have such a young group that they could easily be a much improved team by the end of the year. If Sean Williams gets some solid footwork added to his crazy athleticism, Yi gets better on D, and Devin Harris becomes a stronger leader then we’ll start seeing a lot of the Nets in future post-seasons.

The Timberwolves made a great draft day trade that will really help them long term. They got rid of Antoine Walker (employee #8) and his massive salary, along with Marco Jaric and Greg Buckner. Not a big drop even if they got nothing in return. But they got Mike Miller, Kevin Love, Jason Collins, and Brian Cardinal. They also added Calvin Booth and Rodney Carney. Booth, Cardinal, and Collins are all just big bodies who aren’t good scorers but can deliver 6 fouls each off the bench and help bruise some smaller opponents (AKA Denver). Mike Miller gives them a consistent outside threat they haven’t had in a while. Love looked good in the summer league and will help Al Jefferson rise to near All-Star status. They are still lacking a good Point Guard though – I’m not sure why they re-signed Telfair, he’s a perennial sub 40% shooter with lousy team focus. The T’Wolves definitely improved but are still a couple years away from the play-offs.

The Bucks are interesting. They added Richard Jefferson – rivaling Elton Brand, Marcus Camby, and Baron Davis as the best off-season acquisition. They also added Tyronn Lue and Malik Allen from the Mavericks. They lost Yi & Simmons to the Nets and Ivey to the 76ers. Overall I think that helps them because Jefferson is a huge step up and Yi doesn’t fit in with new coach Scott Skiles’ style of play anyway. I think he give some additional toughness to Adrew Bogut and help them defensively. Michael Redd had a sub-par year last year but I think he’ll make a bit of a comeback this year. I’ve always liked Desmond Mason and think he’ll be key off the bench for Skiles. I also like Charlie Bell and Mo Williams. They are both going to improve with some good X’s and O’s coaching. The Bucks are going to be 7th or 8th in the East.

Speaking of coaching changes, it’ll be really interesting to see if Terry Porter can incorporate Shaq’s strengths into the Suns offense. Losing Brain Skinner will hurt but Matt Barnes will be a nice addition for them. I really Steve Kerr and Terry Porter integrity-wise and hope they have success in their current GM and coach roles with the Suns (except for when they play the Blazers).

The Raptors are another team who is vastly different this year. They are losing Garbajosa and Delfino to Moscow and they lost TJ Ford, Maceo Baston, and Rasho Nesterovic to the Pacers in trade for Jermaine O’Neal. They are not as deep as last year for sure so it will all depend on what kind of year Jermaine has. Will he mesh well with Bosh? Will he be injured for most of the year again? If he has a solid year they could contend for the 8th play-off spot.

The Pacers lost Jermaine O’Neal and Ike Diogu so the rebounds will be harder to come by. They did get quite a bit back in return though… Jarrett Jack, as unpredictable as he was for the Blazers will push Marquis Daniels at the Shooting Guard position and provide Point Guard insurance to TJ Ford and Jamaal Tinsley. Rasho Nesterovic will need to play a large role for them since they lost both O’Neal and Diogu. Nesterovic is underrated and will be the key piece to get them the couple extra wins they’ll need to make the play-offs. They also got Maceo Baston who is getting better each year. They are young and talented and will be a perennial play-off presence in the East for years to come.

One team that will likely have some more changes before the season starts is the Pistons. So far they lost Jarvis Hayes and picked up Kwame Brown. They are a little bigger but less reliable. The trades they make will determine their play-off seed and how far they go into the play-offs.

To me, the other unknown in the East is the Bulls. They lost Chris Duhon and JamesOn Curry but haven’t gained anyone in return. They do have the Derrick Rose coming in at the Point though so he better be all he’s cracked up to be. I think they’ll try to move Kirk Hinrich to give Rose more PT. If they do then they’ll be taking one step back now in order to take two steps forward in the future. Hinrich would be a great addition to a team like the Bobcats who need a solid skilled Point to show DJ Augustine the ropes. By the way, the Bobcats were VERY smart to re-sign Okafor. They will be lucky to reach 30 wins with him, without him they’d be looking at 20 max.

I’ll swing my focus back to the Blazers in my next entry.