Saturday, August 30, 2008

Bills Fan Aaron's Favorite Football Players

This is my brother Aaron's favorite football player line-up entry - I've bolded the guys I like enough to add to my honorable mention list - check out my list for updates. The players on Aaron's list higlighted in blue are on both of our 'favorites' list. Aaron didn't give his starters, he gave his 53 man roster... a full team of his favorites and then added honorable mention players too! As you can tell, Aaron knows football much better than I do.

C- Dwight Stephenson, Jim Otto
G- John Hannah, Larry Little, Gene Upshaw
T-Anthony Munoz, Art Shell, Jackie Slater, Roosevelt Brown
TE - Kellen Winslow I, Ozzie Newsome
WR- Steve Largent, Charlie Joiner, James Lofton, Don Hutson, Jerry Rice
QB- Dan Fouts, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon
FB - Jim Brown, Bronko Nagurski, Marion Motley
RB- Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, Gale Sayers, Herschel Walker
P-Sammy Baugh
DT- Alan Page, Mean Joe Greene, Bob Lilly
DE- Bruce Smith, Deacon Jones, Reggie White, Carl Eller
ILB/MLB - Mike Singletary, Chuck Bednarik,Dick Butkus, Ray Nitschke
OLB - Lawrence Taylor, Jack Ham, Bobby Bell, Derrick Thomas
S- Ronnie Lott, Emlen Tunnell, Ken Houston, Rod Woodson
CB - Dick "Night Train" Lane, Darrell Green, Mel Blount, Lem Barney
K - Morten Andersen
KR/PR - Brian Mitchell
Sp. Teams- Steve Tasker
Head Coach - Marv Levy

Now here are some of my honorable mentions. A few of these names may not be recognizable because they played before we were aware in the mid '70s. Many are hall of famers from the 30's through 60's that you might be scratching your head about.

C- Jim Ringo, Mike Webster, Mick Tinglehoff, Jeff Van Note

G- Randall McDaniel, Billy Shaw, Joe DeLamielleure, Bruce Matthews, Tom Mack, Reggie McKenzie

T- Ron Mix, Chris Hinton, Forrest Gregg, Gary Zimmerman, Mike McCormack, Ron Yary, Rayfield Wright

TE - John Mackey, Charlie Sanders, Steve Jordan, Mike Ditka, Russ Francis, Ron Kramer, Jackie Smith, Dave Casper

WR - Andre Reed, Tim Brown, Art Monk, Lance Alworth, Anthony Carter, Cris Carter, Marvin Harrison, Irving Fryar, Don Maynard, Raymond Berry, Charley Taylor, Paul Warfield, Elroy "Crazy Legs" Hirsch, Bobby Mitchell, Harold Jackson, Fred Biletnikoff, Harold Carmichael, John Stallworth, Art Powell, Lionel Taylor, Otis Taylor, Tom Fears, Pete Pihos, Dante Lavelli, Charley Hennigan, Cliff Branch, Henry Ellard, Isaac Bruce, Stanley Morgan, Tommy McDonald, Torry Holt

QB - Randall Cunningham, Johnny Unitas, Otto Graham, Joe Montana, Sammy Baugh, Fran Tarkenton, Dan Marino, Sonny Jurgenson, YA Tittle, Brett Favre, Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw, Len Dawson, Bobby Layne, Sid Luckman, Drew Bledsoe, George Blanda, Bart Starr, Flutie

FB- Jim Taylor, Joe "the Jet" Perry, John Henry Johnson, Larry Csonka, Clarke Hinkle, Ernie Nevers, Larry Centers, Chuck Muncie, Cookie Gilchrist, Jim Nance, Paul Younger, Bill Brown (Vikings), Billy Cannon, Mike Alstott, Dan Towler, Christian Okoye, Sam Cunningham, Lorenzo Neal

RB- Earl Campbell, Marcus Allen, Eric Dickerson, Red Grange, Jim Thorpe, Thurman Thomas, Tony Dorsett, Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Franco Harris, Ollie Matson, Steve Van Buren, Hugh McElhenny (Vikings 2 yrs), Curtis Martin, Ottis Anderson, Lenny Moore, Ladainian Tomlinson, Bo Jackson, Jerome Bettis, Roger Craig (vikes), Shaun Alexander, Leroy Kelly, John Riggins, Terrell Davis, Robert Smith (vikes), James Brooks, Eddie George, Mercury Morris, Rickey Watters, Gerald Riggs, Floyd Little, Chuck Foreman, William Andrews, Earnest Byner, Freeman McNeil, Joe Cribbs, Priest Holmes

P- Reggie Roby, Ray Guy, Yale Lary, Sean Landeta, Tommy Davis, Paul Maguire, Jerrel Wilson.

Here is the defense and special teams honorable mention team:

DT - Buck Buchanan, Merlin Olsen, Leo Nomellini, Curley Culp, Art Donovan, Rosey Grier, John Randle (Vikings), Gene "Big Daddy" Lipscomb, Houston Antwine, Jerome Brown, Alex Karras, Randy White, Fred Smerlas, Ted Washington, Cortez Kennedy, Henry Thomas (Vikings), Wally Chambers, Gary "Big Hands" Johnson, Keith Millard (Vikings), Pat Williams (Bills and Vikings), Kevin Williams (Vikings), Sam Adams, Tom Sestak, Jim Duniway, Marcus Stroud

DE - Jim Marshall (Vikings), Bubba Smith, Jack Youngblood, Andy Robustelli, Coy Bacon, Michael Strahan, Al "Bubba" Baker, Howie Long, Willie Davis, Doug Atkins, Chris Doleman (Vikings), Lee Roy Selmon, Fred Dean, Elvin Bethea, Ed "too tall" Jones, Len Ford, Sean Jones, Greg Townsend, Richard Dent, Dan Hampton, Harvey Martin, Jason Taylor, Claude Humphrey, Otis Sistrunk, Cedric Hardman

MLB/ILB - Sam Mills, Tommy Nobis (Falcons), Jack Lambert, Willie Lanier, Sam Huff, Harry Carson, Joe Schmidt, Bill George, Chris Spielman, Randy Gradishar, Mike Curtis, Jessie Tuggle, Jeff Siemon (Vikings), Vaughan Johnson, Nick Buonticonti, Hardy Nickerson, Shane Conlan, Lee Roy Jordan, Bill Bergey, Levon Kirkland, Scott Studwell, Pepper Johnson, Harry Jacobs, London Fletcher

OLB - Junior Seau, Clyde "Bulldog" Turner, Rickey Jackson, Derrick Brooks, Dave Wilcox, Dave Robinson, Tom Jackson, Matt Blair, Andre Tippett, Ted Hendricks, George Connor, Reggie Williams, Chris Hanburger, Clay Matthews, Darryl Talley, Chuck Howley, Mike Stratton, E.J. Holub, Seth Joyner, Chad Brown, Kevin Greene, Tim Harris, Bryce Paup, Pat Swilling, Charles Haley, Cornelius Bennett, Isiah Robertson, Robert Brazile, Andy Russell, George Webster, Donnie Edwards, Greg Lloyd, Jason Gildon, Phil Villapiano, Simon Fletcher, Willie McGinest, Mike Merriweather (Vikings), Ken Harvey, Jesse Armstead, Jerry Robinson, Joey Porter, Jim Youngblood, Michael Cofer, Lavar Arrington, Carl Banks, Mike Croel, Chip Banks, Wilber Marshall, John Mobley, Otis Wilson, Hugh Green, E.J. Junior, Jamir Miller, Wally Hilgenberg (vikings), Thomas "Hollywood" Henderson, Peter Boulware, Rod Martin, Takeo Spikes, Robin Cole, Jesse Armstead

S - Larry Wilson, Paul Krause (Vikings), Yale Lary, Jack Christiansen, Donnie Shell, Willie Wood, Jack Tatum, Joey Browner (Vikings), Johnny Robinson, Cliff Harris, Jake Scott, Dick Anderson, Bill Bradley, George Saimes, Eugene Robinson, Deron Cherry, Kenny Easley, Bill Thompson, Rodney Harrison, Mark Kelso, Tony Greene, Brian Dawkins, Henry Jones

CB - Mel Renfro, Willie Brown, Herb Adderley, Aeneas Williams, Dick LeBeau, Mike Haynes, Jimmy Johnson, Ken Riley, Everson Walls, Dave Brown, Emmitt Thomas, Dave Grayson, George "Butch" Byrd, Bob Boyd, Lester Hayes, Lemar Parrish, Deion Sanders, Pat Fischer, Kermit Alexander, Troy Vincent, Ty Law, Eric Allen, Champ Bailey, Carl Lee (Vikings), Robert James

K - Gary Anderson (Vikes), Jan Stenerud (Vikes), George Blanda, Lou Groza, Nick Lowery, Norm Johnson, Steve Christie, Eddie Murray, Jason Hanson, Jim Turner, Jim Bakken, Gino Cappelletti, Fred Cox (Vikes), John Carney, Chris Bahr, Matt Bahr, Matt Stover, Pat Leahy, Adam Vinatieri, Mark Moseley, Tom Dempsey, Jason Elam, John Kasay, Al Del Greco, Ryan Longwell (Vikings), Garo Yepremian, Scott Norwood, Rian Lindell, Jim Breech, Efren Herrera, Don Cocroft

KR/PR - Gale Sayers, Mel Gray, Billy "White Shoes" Johnson, Abe Woodson, Rick Upchurch, Jack Christiansen, Emlen Tunnell, Speedy Duncan, Travis Williams, Ron Smith, Lyn Chadnois, Deion Sanders, Jermaine Lewis, Claude "Buddy" Young, Terry Metcalf, Eric Metcalf, Desmond Howard, Lionel "Little Train" James, Dante Hall, Terrence McGee, Devin Hester

Special Teams - Elbert Shelley, Michael Bates, Reyna Thompson, Fredd Yound, Rufus Porter, Bill Bates, Mark Pike, Fred McAfee

Head Coach - Bud Grant (Vikings), George Halas, Vince Lombardi, Joe Gibbs, Paul Brown, Hank Stram, Tom Landry, Chuck Knox, Tony Dungy, Jim Mora, Weeb Ewbanks, Don Coryell, Chuck Knoll, Bum Phillips

Thursday, August 28, 2008

NBA Coaches - Who I'd Hire, Who I'd Fire

1st tier – The 10 coaches I’d hire, in order, if I were a GM.
1. Rick Adleman – HOU – His teams always play at a high level. He’s liked by players and great with creative ball movement (probably the best offensive minded coach) and pretty solid defensively. He can make guys like Bonzi Wells and Ron Artest successful in his system… not an easy task!
2. Doc Rivers – BOS – Exceptional motivator who knows the game and is defensive oriented. Positive influence. Point Guard mentality works to keep the ball moving to the hot hand.
3. Gregg Popovich – SA – Perhaps the most consistent coach when it comes to fundamentals – keeps his players motivated but not overly emotional
4. Jerry Sloan – UTA – Very much like Popovich (or is Popovich like him?) His teams always over-achieve.
5. Nate McMillan – POR – Similar to Doc Rivers but doesn’t have the same amount of play-off experience as a coach (yet). Not quite as good of a motivator as Doc is but is getting better at letting players realize and play to their strengths.
6. Avery Johnson – N/A – The Mavericks made a mistake to let him go. He’s similar to Doc on the motivational level but not as good with managing minutes. A very solid character guy.
7. Phil Jackson – LAL – I don’t like his smarmy attitude but his coaching career is unarguable.
8. Jeff Van Gundy – ORL – He’s one of the best coaches at getting players to play above expectations.
9. Flip Saunders – N/A – Another coach who should be in the league. He is a great offensive coach who lets his players play to their strengths and manages egos well.
10. Sam Mitchell – TOR – The most underrated coach out there. He managed to get a team with a majority of foreign players to the play-offs – can you imagine trying to teach when there are 6 or 7 different languages being spoken? As a player he was a solid, team-oriented guy who used his basketball knowledge to make those around him better. I see him doing the same thing as a coach. His upside is huge.

2nd tier – These are coaches I like but who have not been consistent in getting their teams deep into the play-offs, yet they are at least in the play-offs consistently.
George Karl – DEN
Mike D'Antoni – NY
Eddie Jordan – WAS
Byron Scott – NO

3rd tier – These are coaches I like who have not proven they are consistent yet; may need some help with X’s, O’s, and clock management.
Maurice Cheeks – PHI
Scott Skiles – MIL
Mike Dunleavy – LAC
Reggie Theus – SAC
Lawrence Frank – NJ

4th tier – This tier is coaches I don’t like but who usually do well in spite of my opinion.
Don Nelson – GS
Rick Carlisle – DAL
Larry Brown – CHA

5th tier – This tier is for the coaches I have no opinion of, either because they are new or because it’s hard for me to gauge if it’s them or the players who make the team better.
Michael Curry – DET
Vinnie Del Negro – CHI
Mike Brown – CLE
Jim O’Brien – IND
Erik Spoelstra – MIA
Mike Woodson – ATL

6th tier – These coaches are immediately replaceable in my book. I'd say adios if I were the GM.
Randy Wittman – MIN
Marc Iavaroni – MEM
PJ Carlisemo – OKC

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Football Favorites

This is my personal all-time football team by position. As you can see, I am a Minnesota Vikings fan and a fan of players who spent time in the USFL. (Players added later than the original post are highlited in blue).

C – Dwight Stephenson
G – Randall McDaniel
G – Gary Zimmerman
T – Art Shell
T – Luis Sharpe
TE – Ozzie Newsome
WR – Cris Carter
WR – Anthony Carter
QB – Fran Tarkenton
RB – Walter Payton
P – Reggie Roby

DT – Alan Page
DT – Otis Sistrunk
DE – Reggie White
DE – Bruce Smith
LB – Sam Mills
LB – Matt Blair
CB – Mel Blount
CB – Ronnie Lott
S – Deion Sanders
S – Joey Browner
K – Morten Andersen

Coach – Bud Grant

There were a few very close calls so I need to mention some of my bench…
QB – Warren Moon, Jim Kelly, Brett Favre, Dan Fouts, Doug Williams, Randall Cunningham, Norm Van Brocklin, Johnny Unitas, Steve Young, Peyton Manning
RB – Herschel Walker, Thurman Thomas, Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Bo Jackson, Gerald Riggs, Joe Cribbs, Earl Campbell, Gayle Sayers, Mack Strong, Tony Dorsett, Eric Dickerson, Roger Craig, Robert Smith, William Andrews, Shaun Alexander, Chuck Foreman
WR – Cliff Branch, Steve Largent, Isaac Bruce, Marvin Harrison, Art Monk, Andre Reed, Torry Holt, Charlie Joiner, James Lofton, Fred Biletnikoff, Tim Brown, Ricky Sanders, Irving Fryar, Ahmad Rashad
TE – Kellen Winslow (I), Antonio Gates, Jackie Smith, Dave Casper, Steve Jordan
O-Line – Larry Little, Gene Upshaw, Walter Jones, Joe DeLamielleure, Reggie McKenzie, Rayfield Wright
P – Ray Guy, Sean Landeta
K – Gary Anderson, Tom Dempsey, George Blanda
DT/NT – Pat Williams, William Perry, ‘Mean’ Joe Green, Bob Lilly, Curley Culp, John Randle, ed Washington, Cortez Kennedy, Wally Chambers, Kevin Williams, Sam Adams
DE – Jevon Kearse, Carl Eller, Ed ‘Too Tall’ Jones, Jim Marshall, Deacon Jones, Dwight 'Mad Dog' White, Bubba Smith, Coy Bacon, Michael Strahan, Lee Roy Selmon, Elvin Bethea, Richard Dent, Sean Jones, Cedric Hardman, Harvey Martin
LB – Harry Carson, Cornelius Bennett, Mike Singletary, Lawrence Taylor, Derrick Thomas, Willie Lanier, Vaughan Johnson, Rickey Jackson, London Fletcher, Tom Jackson, Andre Tippett, Mike Merriweather, Wilber Marshall, E.J. Junior
DB – Darrell Green, Fred Smoot, Kenny Easley, Ken Houston, Champ Bailey, Mike Haynes, Ken Riley, Everson Walls, Emmitt Thomas, Lester Hayes, Donnie Shell, Eugene Robinson
KR/PR - Billy 'White Shoes' Johnson, Rick Upchurch, Mel Gray, Terry Metcalf, Dante Hall

I’m sure there are many people who are “better” than these guys but since this is my favorites list I assure you it is accurate. Of course this is pretty much off the top of my head so I may be forgetting a few of my favorites. If I remember, I’ll repost.

Missed Gold Medal

I missed the gold medal game – USA vs. Spain – so I didn’t get to see what was apparently one of the best games to watch of our lifetime from what I’ve heard. I'm glad the USA won but also glad Rudy Fernandez had a great game. I guess he carried his team on his back for much of the time, ensuring they kept pressure on the defense at all times. I did get to watch the game right before that which brought USA to the gold medal match-up. We played Argentina and the one thing I came away with was how amazing Luis Scola was for Argentina. He was in on every single play… at least it felt that way. If he wasn’t rebounding on one end he was scoring on the other. If he plays that way for the Rockets this year he’ll take David West’s place on the All-Star team. The Rockets are going to so good this year. But then again, Yao Ming and Scola both put in a lot of minutes during the Olympics. Hopefully they aren’t too worn out at the end of the year. I think the Lakers might have the same danger with Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant who each have played practically year round when you include the NBA play-offs and Olympics. Has there ever been a time where members from the NBA championship squared off against each other a few months later in the World Championship? Pretty cool to think about, but it may hurt the Lakers next year. I can hope, can’t I???

What I really missed when I missed the gold medal game was watching Rudy Fernandez. I tried to look up video on-line but there wasn’t much at all out there that showed him. But I did read up on it quite a bit and it sounds like he is going to be better than I expected. Apparently, he is fearless and has a very wide variety of offensive moves and can knock down 3’s regularly. His defense is suspect so I hope he listens and learns from Coach McMillan this year and improves in that area.

I think he has the ability to be the top sixth man in the league this year, unless we keep Travis Outlaw on the second team, then Travis may steal it from him. What a combo to have coming of the bench though!!

And what a bench we have! If we start Martell at Small Forward and Blake at Point Guard then we could have this team coming in off the bench:

PG – Jerryd Bayless
SG – Rudy Fernandez
SF – Travis Outlaw
PF – Channing Frye
C – Joel Przybilla

I’d take that line-up against the Knicks, Bobcats, and Grizzlies starters! Add Ike Diogu and Raef LaFrentz to round out our 12 for some serious size mis-matches and man!... we’re gonna be fun to watch!!!

Last year I predicted 39 wins for the Blazers. They ended up with 41. This year I am going with 47. Let’s hope they end up with 49!

The Lost Art of the Hook

Yesterday, with all the news of Kevin Duckworth’s passing, I got to thinking about what made Duckworth so good on the court. For me, it wasn’t just his size and ability to clog the middle on defense and use his body to clear room on offense; it was his beautiful baby hook shot. He had a quick yet feathery touch and could use that shot to score against any Center… even the greats like Ewing, Olajuwon, and David Robinson. Other Blazer Centers like Bill Walton and Arvydas Sabonis were good with the baby hook too, but Walton’s shot was clunky compared to Duckworth. Sabonis, the closest thing I’ve seen to Goliath, powered it in with force… a very strange thing for a shot like that… maybe his hugeness just made every shot seem like it went down with force. Kevin Duckworth shot it with finesse, which you don’t always think of when you think of 300 pounders.

Once in a while, LaMarcus hits the baby hook. I think he could get really good at it if he tried. He’s got a smooth touch and flow to his game that would be fitting for the baby hook. I’d love to see Greg Oden perfect it but I’m not sure how good his touch is. With his size and dunk-ability he’ll get to the basket often enough against smaller guys, but this would be a great shot for him to learn to use against the big shot blocking opponents like Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudemire, Tyson Chandler , and Marcus Camby.

Lew Alcindor, AKA Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, made the sky hook famous. The sky hook had more of an arch than the baby hook and was usually shot from farther out. The arch made it almost impossible to block. The baby hook is easier to master and more accurate for most players because it is closer to the basket and has less margin for error in flight. All hook shots, for me, are cool to watch. The sky hook is a shot you can see forming; it uses almost exaggerated movements before the shot is in the air. The baby hook on the other hand, isn’t as predictable - an unexpected quick flick of the wrist, usually catching the opponent off-guard because the shooter is heading away from the basket. Today, you don’t see many who have perfected the hook shot. I think too many big men take the easy way out by counting on the dunk or the rebound put-back. I think the game would be more fun to watch if Centers added hook shots to their repertoire.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Duckworth & Old Blazers / New Blazers contrast

Kevin Duckworth. 00. The big man in the middle during the Blazers championship runs in the late 80’s and early 90’s is gone. It is eerily fitting that I wore all black today, and extremely rare wardrobe choice for me. Sometimes true fans are connected deeper than they will ever know.

When I was a Realtor I toured Kevin Duckworth’s house out near Canby... it was very nice but not too gaudy or lavish. Just a classy big place on some acreage surrounded by Christmas tree farms. Since I lived, at the time, on a place surrounded by Christmas tree farms I felt like I could relate to him... he seemed to be very different from the average famous athlete. He and Jerome Kersey both stayed in the Portland area after they retired and I like that about them. Both got involved in helping the community and I like that about them too. I saw double zero at a Blazer game last year and he was a massive man. From what I understand, his heart was just as big. It’s a sad day in Blazerland today.

The sadness got me reminiscing back to those fun years when Duck, Jerome, Terry Porter, Clyde Drexler, and Buck Williams dominated. And it hit me as I was sending a note to my friend Brad… this is the same way I feel about this year’s team… there is a certain closeness and fondness and hopefulness. I think it’s because this team puts in the same effort on and off the court like that team did. That, and the fact that they are real. Relatable. Professional, not aloof. Down to Earth… regular guys with extraordinary talent. Guys who work hard and treat people right. Lunch pail guys. Effort, humbleness, professionalism, and community connection are what I must truly long for in pro teams.

Like Duckworth, I Hope Greg Oden will become one in a long line of great Blazer Centers... Bill Walton, Michael Thompson, Kevin Duckworth, Arvydas Sabonis, and Greg Oden... that's a better big man legacy than most teams can claim.

I think the biggest difference between the Drexler era and the current era is experience. Buck was a very solid veteran when the Blazers got him. He was a guy that Ike Diougu and Channing Frye should aspire to be – solid rebounder, great footwork on defense, good passer for a big guy. Buck and Maurice Lucas are my favorite Blazer Power Forwards of all-time. We also had Danny Ainge coming off the bench and he was a great 3-point shooter who was crafty at drawing the foul. Mark Bryant was also an imposing enforcer off the bench. Cliff Robinson could play Small Forward, Power Forward and Center, which was rare at the time. Danny Young and Drazen Petrovich were good gap fillers, though I think Drazen was a bit over rated. He was energetic; the Sergio Rodriguez of his time with better 3-point accuracy. They used a different back-up center each year for a while. Wayne Cooper, Bill Cartwright, Alaa Abdelnaby, James Edwards, etc. Though their bench may not be as deep as the current team, they were more experienced and had more leadership ability.

The depth of the current Blazers is the exceptional difference between the two eras. Joel Przyabilla is so much better than Alaa Abdelnaby. I hope they keep him around for a while so we don’t have to do what the old Blazers did with a new Center each year. I think Rudy Fernandez will be a better all-around player than Ainge in the end. A lot of it will depend on how Oden and Bayless turn out, but if they gel with the team then we are one of the deepest in the league by far. And even though we lack veterans we have a few players, like Brandon Roy and Steve Blake, who play and lead like veterans. Bench guys like Channing Frye, Przybilla, Ike Diogu, Bayless, Travis Outlaw, and even LaFrentz. When we need to we can be versatile and match up to any team regardless of if they go big or small.

Last year we didn’t match up well against teams that had a Yao Ming or Dwight Howard. With Oden in the mix, we should be able to. Przybilla is probably the best Center coming off the bench in the league. Not for his scoring of course but he is a great rebounder and decent shot blocker. Our depth should allow our starters to rest enough during the season to get us some wins late in the year and maybe even one or two in the play-offs. In a couple years, when these guys become veterans, we can be one of the elite teams in the NBA.

Friday, August 8, 2008

NBA West predictions & reasons

Earlier, I predicted that the Blazers will be one of the 8 teams from the West to make the play-offs. I think they will be #8.

#1 Hornets
#2 Rockets
#3 Spurs
#4 Suns
#5 Jazz
#6 Lakers
#7 Clippers
#8 Blazers

Here’s my pre pre-season rundown of why I went with these predictions:

The Clippers just added another good piece today, effectively replacing a disappointing Shaun Livingston with Jason Williams. Jason will make a great back-up to Baron Davis because he will keep the Clips at a high level of play when Baron’s back goes out every now and then. They also added Steve Novak from the Rockets. Not a huge find but another solid rebounder to give them even more depth up front. They’ll end up with a better record than the Blazers because they have some really solid veterans and enough depth to ride out injuries.

The Lakers lost Ronny Turiaf but that’s not a big enough loss to drop them out of the play-offs. They are well-coached too so they might even make it through the first round against a tougher opponent.

The Jazz are well-coached too and their young guys are getting better. As always, they are boring but strong and will push the 1st round to 7 games before they are finished.

The Suns are too talented to lose more than 25 games (barring injury to Amare Stoudemire). Amare is going to be MVP in the West (while he’ll beat out Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul, Dwight Howard will be the overall NBA MVP). Steve Nash, Shaq, and Grant Hill are getting older but are savvy enough to make a huge difference when they’re on the floor. Stoudemire, Barbosa, Diaw, Barnes, & Strawberry make up a great young, talented core to build on for the future. I think Terry Porter is in for a long and illustrious career in Phoenix.

The Spurs are still very formidable and will not be rattled during the regular season. They are well-coached too so play-off wins won’t be easy against them.

The Rockets are going to have a stellar year. They’ll be getting Yao Ming back healthy and T-Mac will again quietly out-score and out-rebound every Guard he comes up against. He makes it look so effortless… almost like he’s falling asleep while dropping 6 3’s, grabbing 5 boards, and getting 7 Assists. The addition of Ron Artest will stop any opponent’s Small Forward. Luis Scola is an improving blue-collar Power Forward who will have an even better year with Yao at his side. Their role players like Luther Head and Carl Landry will keep them in the game while their starters rest, meaning they can last deeper into the play-offs. Aaron Brooks will challenge Rafer Alston for the starting Point Guard position. I think coach Adelman is one of the few who can keep Artest under control and keep such a deep crew happy with playing time.

The Hornets were great last year and the addition of James Posey will push them to the Western Division Finals. I don’t think they are coached as well as the Spurs, Jazz, Lakers, or Rockets so if they hit any of those teams in the play-offs they may be in for trouble. Chris Paul is amazing though, he’ll dominate all other Point Guards this year. CP3, Tyson Chandler, and David West are a solid core to make everyone else around them much better. With great role players like Posey, Mo Peterson, and Peja Stojakovic they will net 60+ wins this year. They still lack complete depth though, especially at the Shooting Guard spot, so they may not get to the Championship this year.

Overall, the Blazers will have a tough time against all these teams this year. Look out next year though, once they have some experience under their belt they’ll start making some headway. Summer 2011 will be the time we can celebrate our first NBA Championship in more than 30 years.

Blazers - rough start will shake confidence (of fairweather fans)

The Blazers will begin the season with the highest level of difficulty of during their first 5 games. They have the toughest schedule in the league during that time based on opponent winning percentage from last year. So how will that affect them? Will they be up for the challenge?

I think they will start out 1-4, but I think that’s OK. It’ll get everyone to calm down a bit and be more realistic. People who are putting the Blazers in the Championship this year are premature. The West is far too deep right now, and the Blazers are not as experienced as they’ll need to be to go deep into the play-offs.

Think about it. Greg Oden has played 1 season in college. A college season is about 30 games. He was partially injured for much of that season so no one has seen him play to full potential since high school. We’ve all placed a lot of hope on someone who has proven nothing at all. He was a good college player, even at sub-par health. He has yet to play a single game against another NBA team during the regular season. How can we gauge the future without that knowledge?

Don’t get me wrong. I love Greg Oden and know he’ll be a perennial All-Star throughout the course of his career, but I think it will take him at least 2 years before he is that good. From what little we know, we can assume he’ll be a dominating force inside just on shear size and brawn. He will block shots and dunk a lot. But I am guessing he will get worked over by big men with solid footwork. He’ll foul out quick against veterans. He’ll turn it over a lot when he gets double and tripled teamed early on. What we really need to see is his learning curve. How quick will he learn to pass out of a double team? How quick will he learn to rely on teammates and not leave his man to try to block shots? How long will it take him to develop a triple motion move to the basket like Tim Duncan has, losing his opponent in the process? How long will it take him to be a leader? Once we know those things, we’ll know a lot more about the future of the Blazers.

There’s also the unknown timeline of the development of Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless. I’ll save that discussion for a later date.

Great potential but nothing rock solid to go off of. Apart from those unknowns though, I think our known commodities are good enough to get us to the play-offs. Aldridge will be even better, Roy will become a great team leader, Joel Przyabilla will play almost as many minutes as he did last year since Oden will be in foul trouble much of the time. Outlaw might be the 6th man of the year. Webster ended last year rebounding the ball very well for a Small Forward; if he can get in the zone and hit the 3-ball as consistently as James Jones did for us, then we might get 47 or 48 wins this year. Diogu’s rebounding will help too. Lots to look forward to for sure. Along with Houston, Phoenix, and surprisingly enough the LA Clippers, I think Portland has of the deepest teams in the league. That will garner a better record than the Warriors, Mavericks, and Nuggets and set us up against either the Hornets or the Rockets in the first round of the play-offs. Either team we play will take us in 5 games.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

More Off-Season Analysis

I’ll start this blog with my early predictions for the Eastern Conference NBA playoffs. I think it’ll be the Celtics, 76ers, Pistons, Magic, Wizards, Pacers, Bucks, and Cavaliers. I think it’ll come down to the Celtics and Magic. The Cavs and Wizards will round out the top 4. Dwight Howard is going to have an off-the-charts type of year. Overall, the East was tough to predict. In the West it was hard to exclude some teams from the playoff predictions but in the East it’s hard to include some. It could easily be the Hawks instead of the Pacers, or the Nets instead of the Bucks. Some of the teams have changed so much that it’ll be tough to gauge the progress or lack thereof until they have 20 games under their belt. I’ll probably have updated predictions at the beginning of the season and then around at Christmas break. There are still trades and free agent signings that will make some difference.

A couple other off-season moves to note:

The Nets lost Richard Jefferson and DeSagana Diop but added Yi Jianlain, Bobby Simmons, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes, and Eduardo Najera. I actually think the talent level slightly decreased but they have such a young group that they could easily be a much improved team by the end of the year. If Sean Williams gets some solid footwork added to his crazy athleticism, Yi gets better on D, and Devin Harris becomes a stronger leader then we’ll start seeing a lot of the Nets in future post-seasons.

The Timberwolves made a great draft day trade that will really help them long term. They got rid of Antoine Walker (employee #8) and his massive salary, along with Marco Jaric and Greg Buckner. Not a big drop even if they got nothing in return. But they got Mike Miller, Kevin Love, Jason Collins, and Brian Cardinal. They also added Calvin Booth and Rodney Carney. Booth, Cardinal, and Collins are all just big bodies who aren’t good scorers but can deliver 6 fouls each off the bench and help bruise some smaller opponents (AKA Denver). Mike Miller gives them a consistent outside threat they haven’t had in a while. Love looked good in the summer league and will help Al Jefferson rise to near All-Star status. They are still lacking a good Point Guard though – I’m not sure why they re-signed Telfair, he’s a perennial sub 40% shooter with lousy team focus. The T’Wolves definitely improved but are still a couple years away from the play-offs.

The Bucks are interesting. They added Richard Jefferson – rivaling Elton Brand, Marcus Camby, and Baron Davis as the best off-season acquisition. They also added Tyronn Lue and Malik Allen from the Mavericks. They lost Yi & Simmons to the Nets and Ivey to the 76ers. Overall I think that helps them because Jefferson is a huge step up and Yi doesn’t fit in with new coach Scott Skiles’ style of play anyway. I think he give some additional toughness to Adrew Bogut and help them defensively. Michael Redd had a sub-par year last year but I think he’ll make a bit of a comeback this year. I’ve always liked Desmond Mason and think he’ll be key off the bench for Skiles. I also like Charlie Bell and Mo Williams. They are both going to improve with some good X’s and O’s coaching. The Bucks are going to be 7th or 8th in the East.

Speaking of coaching changes, it’ll be really interesting to see if Terry Porter can incorporate Shaq’s strengths into the Suns offense. Losing Brain Skinner will hurt but Matt Barnes will be a nice addition for them. I really Steve Kerr and Terry Porter integrity-wise and hope they have success in their current GM and coach roles with the Suns (except for when they play the Blazers).

The Raptors are another team who is vastly different this year. They are losing Garbajosa and Delfino to Moscow and they lost TJ Ford, Maceo Baston, and Rasho Nesterovic to the Pacers in trade for Jermaine O’Neal. They are not as deep as last year for sure so it will all depend on what kind of year Jermaine has. Will he mesh well with Bosh? Will he be injured for most of the year again? If he has a solid year they could contend for the 8th play-off spot.

The Pacers lost Jermaine O’Neal and Ike Diogu so the rebounds will be harder to come by. They did get quite a bit back in return though… Jarrett Jack, as unpredictable as he was for the Blazers will push Marquis Daniels at the Shooting Guard position and provide Point Guard insurance to TJ Ford and Jamaal Tinsley. Rasho Nesterovic will need to play a large role for them since they lost both O’Neal and Diogu. Nesterovic is underrated and will be the key piece to get them the couple extra wins they’ll need to make the play-offs. They also got Maceo Baston who is getting better each year. They are young and talented and will be a perennial play-off presence in the East for years to come.

One team that will likely have some more changes before the season starts is the Pistons. So far they lost Jarvis Hayes and picked up Kwame Brown. They are a little bigger but less reliable. The trades they make will determine their play-off seed and how far they go into the play-offs.

To me, the other unknown in the East is the Bulls. They lost Chris Duhon and JamesOn Curry but haven’t gained anyone in return. They do have the Derrick Rose coming in at the Point though so he better be all he’s cracked up to be. I think they’ll try to move Kirk Hinrich to give Rose more PT. If they do then they’ll be taking one step back now in order to take two steps forward in the future. Hinrich would be a great addition to a team like the Bobcats who need a solid skilled Point to show DJ Augustine the ropes. By the way, the Bobcats were VERY smart to re-sign Okafor. They will be lucky to reach 30 wins with him, without him they’d be looking at 20 max.

I’ll swing my focus back to the Blazers in my next entry.

Cathing Up On NBA Player Movement

OK, so I am a slacker. I haven’t posted lately. I was hoping to hear more about Jerryd Bayless’ play in the Olympic team scrimmages but I couldn’t find any news at all about it. So we may have to wait for training camp to get more information about the way he interacts on the court with established NBA players.

I do want to touch on some NBA player movement that has happened this summer. Several teams have completely altered their roster, some for better, some for worse. The Clippers are the most drastic; they lost Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Brevin Knight, and waived Dan Dickau. They got Baron Davis, Marcus Camby, Ricky Davis, Steve Novak, Brian Skinner, and Jason Hart. With their changes, I think they’ll be a better team (Although I dislike Ricky Davis and think he could be toxic to team chemistry). Brian Skinner is underrated in my book and Marcus Camby is on of the best defensive Centers in the league. When you add those 2 to Chris Kaman’s huge rebounding ability you can see that they will probably dominate the boards against everyone they play (with the possible exception of the Rockets). With Baron Davis running the show I think they will make the playoffs this year.

This is a good time for a playoff prediction tangent! My early prediction for the 8 teams from the West are: Jazz, Rockets, Hornets, Spurs, Suns, Blazers, Clippers, and Lakers. Look for a Rockets vs. Hornets match-up to decide the West. I’ll save the East predictions for another blog.

Besides the Clippers, other teams who received a summer facelift are the Bucks, Nets, Pacers, Timberwolves, Grizzlies, Raptors, 76ers, Warriors, Nuggets, and Hawks. I think the 76ers have made the biggest improvement, while the Nuggets and Hawks have taken the biggest fall. The addition of Elton Brand, Royal Ivey, & Kareem Rush while only losing Calvin Booth & Rodney Carney means the 76ers will challenge the big guns in the East. They're biggest hurdle will be the loose coaching style of Maurice Cheeks. He's a bit shaky when it gets beyond the 1st round of the play-offs.

The Nuggets loss of Marcus Camby & Eduardo Najera means one of the worst defensive teams in the league last year lost their two best enforcers. I am not a huge Najera fan but he at least took the charge and gave a hard foul when called upon. Camby is the loss that will keep them out of the playoffs. They still have Iverson, Carmelo, & K-Mart and an improving JR Smith & Linas Kleiza but without anyone who plays D they are only going to beat the scrub teams by outscoring them. Defensive teams like the Jazz, Hornets, and Spurs will crush them like the Lakers did in the first round last season.

The Hawks losing Josh Childress to Greece will hurt them pretty bad. They made it way deeper than anyone expected last year but Childress shot an average of 8 times a game at 57% last year. They are going to struggle to make up for that, especially when they are not going to be sneaking up on anyone this year. They won’t be playing this coming May.

The Warriors are another team that’ll miss the post season. Just when it seemed like they were ready to take the next step forward they lost one of the best Point Guards in the NBA (as far as leadership ability). Moving Monta Ellis to the Point and adding a scorer like Maggette will not make up the difference. They did add Ronny Turiaf but lost Matt Barnes to the Suns, so that is pretty much a wash. They also lost Mickael Pietrus to the Magic so they aren’t as deep as they were last year. They may get 40 wins but that won’t cut it in the West.

Stay tuned next time for more predictions and analysis of off-season moves.