I think we zigged when we should’ve zagged...

Yes, this heading would’ve been better had we been in the running to sign Ronny Turiaf and then signed someone else instead because, you know, Turiaf is from Gonzaga and… OK, my puns can be a stretch at times, I admit it. Forget the whole Gonzaga attempt and focus with me on what happened with the Blazers…

I heard this morning that the Blazers did the opposite of what I posted in this blog yesterday. They signed the wrong guy – Batum instead of Koponen; hence the heading. The heading by the way, is a saying my grandpa, affectionately known as Gramps, used to say. Another one of his quotes that I’ll never forget is one he probably said a dozen times when we visited him during spring break in Orlando in 1984 and we went to see the Dodgers vs. the Reds in spring training at a park in Kissimmee… he said, “It’s pronounced Kis-simm-ee in the morning and Kiss-im-mee at night.” (Hmm… maybe that’s where the humorous genes come from. And I’m not talking about acid washed either! HA HA!)

Oh my! My side is aching. I better get back to the Blazers before I kill my blog ratings (21 hits so far – most of them me). So Batum instead of Koponen. I don’t get it. We have 2 solid guys at the small forward position. We also have Roy and Fernandez who could easily play there in a 3-guard line-up. Like Blake, Bayless, and Roy along with LaMarcus and Oden… not a bad line-up. I admit we would have a serious log-jam at the point if we kept Koponen, but we aren’t as deep in talent at the point. I like Sergio but know that he is a very poor defender and sketchy shooter. At the least he’s inconsistent. Why are we going to lose a guy with the skills and promise of Koponen to keep a guy who’s much smaller and inconsistent? Koponen is 6’5” and plays solid D. That’s not an easy thing to find at the point. I know he needs some more development but I’d much rather be giving the scrub time to him than Sergio. I think they must be trying to keep Sergio as a comfort piece for Rudy Fernandez, just to help him get acclimated to the game and help communicate some of the nuances. Beyond that, I don’t get this move at all.

Batum is a replica of hundreds of other guys out there with potential. He has a long wingspan, true… but woopidee doo! If he isn’t driven internally to do anything with that wingspan then he’ll be just another Darius Miles as far as athletic potential. Potential is an intangible that is dependant on the individual mental make-up of the player. I’m sure Batum’s moral compass isn’t as pathetically lame as Darius’ but I still think it’s going to take him too long to get self-motivated to the point where he is productive enough to see the court during an actual game. Is he the next Tayshaun Prince? Or the next Jamaal Wilkes? Or the next Scottie Pippen? I’ve heard all three comparisons. I think he’s the next Ha Seung-Jin.

Potential is wasteful if it doesn’t come to fruition. We are willing to sink time and money into an unknown rather than on a known commodity. Every once in while that risk can pay off. Look at Ardydas Sabonis and hopefully Rudy Fernandez. But then remember Ha Seung Jin. Which path will Batum follow? The Blazers are willing to risk that unknown on something they see, and I apparently missed that something during the summer league. Batum had maybe 4 or 5 plays in 4 games were good. He played a ton of minutes this summer. It certainly didn’t seem like his productivity or teamwork merited a contract. Did he make those around him better? Did he elevate his game and shine above the other prospects? Did he motivate the team with his leadership ability? No, no, and no.

I think Koponen showed all three of those things at times and that’s why I think we zigged when we should’ve zagged.

What's Next?

The next big decision the Blazers need to make is: what do we do with Nicolas Batum and Petteri Koponen?

In my strong opinion, I think it would be a complete waste of a roster spot to add Nicolas Batum this year because he would never get off the bench. He doesn’t appear to be nearly as self-driven or motivated as an NBA has to be. Without that quality, he will flounder on the bench and be an ineffective piece for us.

As for Petteri Koponen, while he didn’t have a strong finish (or is it Finnish?) at the summer league, he proved he can play with the big boys. He can direct a team and is a solid passer. I think he’s slightly better than Sergio Rodriguez and we should keep him for that reason alone. Any upgrade, no matter how slight, is still an upgrade. If we keep him then we’ll have no worries about throwing in Sergio along with LaFrentz in a mid-season trade if we need to.

The other big question that we need to address may come to light during the Olympic scrimmages. Jerryd Bayless will be part of the scrimmage team and I’m hoping they try him out at the Point Guard position. I am not sure if he had a fair chance to be graded on his passing ability because:

A: He was pushing himself to be the MVP of the Summer League, which means lots of scoring or no votes.
B. He was told by the coaching staff to shoot at will – at least during the first few games.
C. The ability of those around him was not as effective as an NBA or Olympic scrimmage team is. In other words, he didn’t trust that his teammates could score so he didn’t pass it to them.

Therein lies what I feel could be a huge issue down the road. At what point will he trust his teammates and quit being a ball-hog. If he doesn’t pass much during the Olympic scrimmages it will tell me a lot about his game. If he doesn’t, then why did we get him? The Blazers are at their best when they are humble and share the responsibility as a team (also true in business and society) - we don’t need ANY selfish players screwing it up. Jerryd…. I’ll be watching… you better pass the rock!

Last Post of the Summer League

No Bayless in today's game against the Hornets. I guess his hand had a boo boo of the short term type - bruised or something like that. It allowed J. R. Pinnock time to show what he can do and he took full advantage. He has the ability to be a solid back-up 2 guard in the league because he has a pretty pure shot from deep.

The other Blazer Summer League player who impressed me today was Steven Hill - again. He contests ever shot at the rim and it felt like he blocked 10 and altered 20 more. He should be a hockey goalie. However, I don't think he'll make the Blazers because we waste the roster spot on a position we are solid at.

We have 2 spots available for people without contracts and I think we should give 1 to Petteri Koponen and keep the other one open - the open spot will let us take a look and see who gets cut after training camp - if there's anyone we feel we can't pass up then we could sign them then. If there's not then we have extra flexibility in our roster that could allow us to make a one-for-two trade. That may be needed come trade deadline time because our main trade bait, Raef LaFrentz, makes way more than he should and we would have to get similar salary back in trade... most likely two players would be needed to make up that big salary. I think Raef's big contract is up at the end of the year so teams will be looking to get him because that will free up a lot of salary room at the end of the year. Of course we could keep him until the end of the year and use that salary room for ourselves... and that's probably what we'll do. There are a couple good players we could use it for but the two I like best are Andre Miller and Carlos Boozer. Depending who well Greg Odom's knee holds up, Boozer might not be needed. But Andre Miller, on the other hand, is one of the most underrated point guards in the league over the past 4 years. Point guard is (and still will be) our weakest position and to add a guy like Andre Miller would easily elevate us to top 4 in the west status (along with the Hornets, Spurs, and Rockets - that's my west prediction for 2009-2010 season).

Back to summer... Batum looked OK on a few plays but still doesn't have the NBA ready game we need. Koponen also had a few good plays but didn't match the level of play he showed in the 1st two games. He's still good enough to keep though - sign him up!

On a personal note, it is my 39th birthday today and my wife invited a bunch of friends and family over for a BBQ. Man am I blessed to have such neat relationships in my life. Knowing that I'll be spending eternity with every single one of them is an unspoken joy that I wish everyone in the world could experience. God is underrated!

I Stand Corrected - Bayless is Gonna Be OK

OK. I admit it. I was wrong about Jerryd Bayless needing to improve his outside shot. I just finished watching the Blazers take on the Suns in their fourth summer league game. Once Bayless quit trying to drive it to the hoop on nearly every single play, he really got hot from the outside. Petteri Koponon wasn't nearly as good this game and Nicolas Batum his best game so far. Steve Hill, the bearded Center from Arkansas had a plethora of blocked shots and is looking more like he could make the roster of a lower-tiered team like the Bobcats or Bucks.

But the story of the night was Bayless. His first half was forgettable but he owned the 2nd half. He may end up being one of those rare players that can take a game on his shoulders and carry a team to a win. I still think we are talking a couple years down the road though. This is summer league after all! But he shows flashes of brilliance. Still don't see him as a point guard yet though. A scorer, yes. A passer?? Not so much.

As for the Suns, they had a few players to note: Alando Tucker, DJ Strawberry, and Robin Lopez. They are the 3 off the Suns summer team who will make the league and Lopez will be a solid center long term. He's in need of some polish but that will come easier for him than most since he has the luxury of backing up Shaq and Amare Stoudemire... what a group to learn from!! As Napoleon Dynamite would say... Lucky.

That's it for now. Blazers vs. the Hornets tomorrow.

Comments on Blazer’s 2008 summer league play so far:

I'll start with my thoughts on our top draft pick this year. Prior to the third game (against the T-Wolves), I don't think Jerryd Bayless hit anything from more than 10 feet.... up to that point it was all drive and draw the foul - not terrible since some of the best scorers historically are the ones who get to the line seemingly every trip down the court (Mailman, Iverson, Bird, etc.) but they could also finish and make it a 3 point play. He made a few against the T-Wolves and can shoot from his off-hand better than most. Still, he definitely needs to improve his shooting touch. I think his mid-range shot is OK but not as good as Petteri Koponen's. I think Bayless could've used a couple more years in college to refine his point guard skills. If he would've stayed and worked on that he could've been the top 4 pick he thinks he should've been. I don't think the Blazers "stole" him at 11. He can jump and get to the line and he does have very high potential but for now I say let him learn how to play point during practice and sit on the bench during games - put him in only if our offense gets stagnant. At this point I don't see him playing as a true point guard but I do think he can help us, perhaps in a 3 Guard situation with him, Roy, and Fernandez... that might be a good way to make use of his foul drawing prowess. Especially late game if we're behind by 5 - 10 points, he can help us make up some ground by getting the other team in foul trouble and getting us to the line for some free pointage.

I am honestly more impressed with the Petteri's ability than I am Jerryd's. He's a more well rounded player and is good under pressure. He can hit the 3, pass in tight lanes, make the high teardrop floater, get a few more steals, and seems more in control. I know I've only seen him in 3 games but from what I've seen we need to sign him up and let him back up Blake at the point.

I don't see anything special in Nicolas Batum. I don't think we should keep him this year. A couple more years in Europe would do him some good. In fact, I don't think anyone besides Bayless and Koponen on the summer team is NBA material except for maybe Brandon Robinson, Josh Davis, or Chris Ellis in a 10-day contract situation. Maric had a few good plays but is too slow. Hill from Arkansas looks like a solid shot blocker but is bound to be a perennial D-Leaguer.

Players on other teams that have impressed me so far:

The Wizards Andray Blotche is their best summer league player. He is a big body in the middle who gets in good position to rebound nearly every play. I think he’ll have a great year as back-up for Haywood at the Center or Jamison at the Power Forward this year.

The Kings' Quincy Douby was much better than expected, he has a nose for the basket like Jerryd but seems to finish more shots. He'll be great energy off the bench for them.

The Timberwolves have a few good players in the summer league but Kevin Love pretty much dominated us. He’ll be a solid 5 to 10 point, 5 – 10 rebound a night player in the regular season but may burn out mid-season after playing against NBA quality big guys. Chris Richards is a bruiser who will hurt other teams with his size. Not too impressed with Corey Brewer – he’s quick but out of control.

Disclaimer: When I say us or we in my blogs about the Blazers, I am referring to the Blazers organization. They are my home-town team and I consider them, as a fan, MY team. That said, I am not an unrealistic homer like many of the Blazer bandwagon jumpers around town. I am and always will be hopefully optimistic with a huge shot of reality mixed in.