Blazer Trade Rumor Thoughts

Well, it’s been a long time since I’ve posted - sorry for the gap. Work has kept me busy lately and Facebook has also infringed a bit. But the trade deadline is coming up though so it’s time for me to get back into the swing of things. The trade deadline and draft day are my two favorite times of the year. The extra dose of speculation and potential sets my mind clicking in high gear.

My buddy Brad alerted me to a trade rumor that got me excited so I want to convey that here to you. The rumor is: Blazers send Travis Outlaw, Sergio Rodriguez, and Raef LaFrentz to the Bulls for Loul Deng and Kirk Heinrich. I think it would be a great deal. Here’s why:

Firstly, I think Heinrich and Deng are the Bull's two most fundamentally solid players so they would work great in Nate's system. It would keep us young and athletic, and keep our character quality too.

Heinrich is an upgrade from Sergio in a few areas. He is a better shooter and only slightly worse passer when you compare assist per minute. However, I think he is a better passer in the half-court set. Sergio shoots four 2’s per game @ 37% and two 3’s a game @ 29%... below average to be sure. Heinrich on the other hand shoots four 2’s per game @ 42% and four 3’s per game @ 38%... much better! Sergio is a better free throw shooter, 83% compared to 75%, but neither get to the line that often anyway so it’s a moot point. My only reservation with Heinrich is that he’s been injury prone so far.

Deng is a better rebounder than Outlaw, even though he’s not as big. Outlaw gets more blocks but I’d take rebounds over blocks any day. Deng shoots twelve 2’s @ 45% and doesn’t shoot 3’s. Outlaw shoots ten 2’s per game @ 43% and three 3’s @ 42%. Deng shoots 80% from the free throw line and gets to the stripe more often than Travis who shoots free throws @ 68%. Deng passes and steals better than Outlaw but is not quite as good of a shot-blocker. So, we would improve in rebounding, passing, free throws, 2-pointers but lose some of our 3-point capability. But with the addition of Heinrich that would be off-set, thus becoming a non-issue. I need to watch Deng play defense to make sure he’s OK there. Travis is a solid on-the-ball defender but is poor at rotating to the open shooter. If Loul is better in that area then he’d be a big upgrade.
Of course I would rather give up Frye than Outlaw, but I doubt the Bulls would ever go for that.

And we would lose LaFrentz to which I say… Woop-id-ee-do! Who cares?! We would lose his huge contract and gain two long-term contracts in return. So we’d lose some flexibility there. But I think that’s a fair price to pay for two solid players who can contribute and improve the team immediately.

Besides that, I can’t think of too many other players out there who would fit in with our team and improve it. But…

There is one guy who I think would go great with our team and be an improvement over Steve Blake… Andre Miller. He is an unrestricted free agent next year. I think we should do what we can to land him, even it means sending Blake in trade. Andre Miller and Kirk Heinrich would be a Point Guard tandem that could drive us deep into the play-offs, perhaps even the championship.

Inspiring Story

Read this story:
http://www.portlandtribune.com/sports/story.php?story_id=122906302371923700

Not a Blazer article, but a good one! He gives credit where credit is due.

My December Blazer game predictions:

Dec. 2 @ Knicks – I thought we’d win; we won 104-97
Dec. 5 @ Wahington - win
Dec. 5 @ Boston – loss
Dec. 7 @ Toronto – loss
Dec. 9 vs. Orlando – win
Dec. 11 @ Utah – loss
Dec. 12 vs. Clippers – win
Dec. 16 vs. Sacramento – win
Dec. 18 vs. Phoenix – loss
Dec. 22 @ Denver – loss
Dec. 23 vs. Denver – win
Dec. 25 vs. Dallas – win
Dec. 27 vs. Toronto – win
Dec. 30 vs. Boston – loss

So, if my predictions are correct we will go 8-6 in December and end the month with a 20-12 record.

I was wrong...

I was wrong about Nicolas Batum. I thought he would be shipped overseas to develop for a couple years and then fester on the end of the Blazer bench if he ever made it back. Now he’s starting, playing tough D, and raining in steady 3s.

I was wrong about Sergio Rodriguez. I thought he was trade-bait. I thought he was never going to get better. He is showing me up so far this year (and I am glad about that).

I was wrong about the Clippers being a play-off team. I thought Jason Williams would be a great back-up for Baron Davis, but then White Chocolate retired just to prove me wrong. They are off to a terrible start. (However, they still have time to turn it around though after the Zach Randolph trade… so maybe I won’t be wrong in the end).

I was wrong about the Chargers. I picked them to win the Super Bowl. They are 4-8 and won’t even make the play-offs. That’s what I get for listening to the hype.

All-Star Voting

I love the NBA and always enjoy watching the All-Star game, and I also like the rookie/sophomore game and the dunk contest they have during All-Star Weekend. In my opinion, the NBA has the most watch-able, fan friendly all-star event of the big 3 sports. However…

I just finished poking holes in about 30 more All-Star ballots and I feel the need to comment on a major flaw in the voting process. There, listed on the ballot was Stephon Marbury. The same Stephon Marbury who has not played a single minute this year. I know the NBA lets fans pretty much choose the All-Star game starters like a popularity contest, but shouldn’t the players fans can choose from be ones who’ve actually played? C’mon!

Also, there is only room for one write-in vote per conference, so I couldn’t write in both Joel Przyabilla and Steve Blake, even they both are putting up pretty elite numbers this year. The only 3 Blazers available are Greg Oden, Brandon Roy, and LaMarcus Aldridge (needless to say I voted for them each time).

The saving grace to the NBA All-Star selection process is that once the starters are chosen by the fans, coaches get to vote in the remainder of the players. That helps get the players who deserve it into the game. That’s how Brandon Roy got in last year and probably how he’ll get in this year too.

So, just FYI, here are my picks:

West
C – Greg Oden (I know he hasn’t earned it but since Joel wasn’t on the ballot…)
F – LaMarcus Aldridge
F – Tim Duncan / Amare Stoudemire (I split my other forward votes between them)
G – Brandon Roy
G – Chris Paul

East
C – Dwight Howard
F – LeBron James
F – Kevin Garnet / Chris Bosh (I split my other forward votes between them)
G – Dwayne Wade
G – Devin Harris / Mo Williams / Joe Johnson / Ray Allen (Lots of choices and none very clear cut except for Dwayne, so I pretty much chose a few of my favorites.

Thunder!!

OK, I’ve been meaning to comment on this for a while because it really irks me…

Firstly, know that I am a big fan of logos and color schemes. Team image is one of the many influences that impacts the fan experience and I am a very visual-minded person. The larger piece of team image, of course, is personnel, because no matter how cool you look, if your team is full of losers then the experience will be forgettable. But say you’ve done your job with that… teams are known visually by their logo and color schemes. It gives them their unique look.

The Sonics had the chance, when they moved to Oklahoma City, to change their look. They chose the name Thunder, and I am OK with that. The logo they chose is pretty weak though, in my opinion. But where I have a problem is-- when they went to choose a color scheme they went with light blue. I say again… light blue. Light blue and orange just doesn’t convey Thunder to me. When I think thunder, I conjure up images of dark and ominous clouds, maybe some steaks of lightning or some hail… the sky reverberating with loud crashes that shake the bowels of men. NOT light blue.

But this is not the only reason why light blue is a terrible color choice. How many teams already have blue in their color scheme? Let’s count them, shall we?!

1. Utah Jazz
2. Denver Nuggets
3. Memphis Grizzlies
4. New Orleans Hornets
5. Orlando Magic
6. Dallas Mavericks
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Washington Wizards
10. New Jersey Nets
11. LA Clippers
12. Golden State Warriors
13. Charlotte Bobcats
14. Atlanta Hawks
15. New York Knicks

Exactly one half of the teams in the NBA… already. And 8 or 9 of those are not just blue, but light blue. So the creative geniuses in Oklahoma City chose what color? Did they poll a group of sixth graders for input? I can picture the owner’s wife saying, “Gee, most teams already have light blue… light blue must be the latest shade in Basketball… so let’s go with… light blue!” Way to be original.

Next chance they get (read All-Star break) they should change it to black and purple, with white lightning bolts for trim… something like that. Something thunder-ish. Just not light blue!!! The whole idea makes me long for Sonic green and yellow.

Blazer Update 11-24-08

The Blazers are sitting at 8-6. Very nice. They are off to a much better start than most predicted, including myself. The best news… they are giving it their all and it translates: fun to watch!

A few things to note about the team so far:

Point Guard Play
Blake and Rodriguez are running the point extremely efficiently – The Blazers are one of the best teams so far in the Assist to Turnover ratio. Blake is 10th in the league for players with more than 200 minutes. Also, for players who’ve played more than 200 minutes this year, Sergio’s assist rate (per minute played) is 2nd in the league – Chris Paul is 1st. That’s pretty lofty status. I was pretty quick to dismiss Sergio when he said he wanted to be traded, but I see now that he is good for us. Steve Blake has scored more than 20 points in the last 2 games… he’s on a roll. One of the coolest pictures I’ve ever seen was in the Oregonian the other day – Steve Blake leaning over with blood literally pouring off of his scalp after a collision with a camera. It proved that he is a modern-day warrior.

3 Point Shooting
We are also off to a great start from outside. Even though we lost James Jones and Martell is hurt, we are tops in the league at shooting 3s. Here are some stats (3s per game/ percentage):

Travis Outlaw: 3 @ 51%
Rudy Fernandez: 6 @ 42%
Steve Blake: 5 @ 45%
Nicolas Batum: 2 @ 41%
Brandon Roy: 3 @ 37%
Sergio Rodriguez: 3 @35%

Anything better than 35% is = to shooting 2s at 50%. So we are doing great so far!

Center
Joel Pryzabilla and Greg Oden are tearing it up in the middle. Greg is way up there in blocks per minute… tied with Andrew Bynum and Brian Skinner for 4th in the League (only Ronny Turiaf, Dwight Howard, and Marcus Camby are better). Joel is shooting three 2-pointers per game @ 83%... the best in the league for players over 200 minutes (the next best is Nene with 65%). Seeing how we dominate the middle makes it easier to understand why we are able to be so open for 3-pointers.

Españoles Asombrosos
Otherwise known as Amazing Spaniards. Rudy is flat out fun to watch. Even if he is missing his 3s like he did Saturday against the Suns, he still is like watching a lightning bolt zip around the court. He and Sergio connect on some sweet alley-oops that make your eyes pop out. I knew they kept Sergio around to help Rudy in his transition to the NBA, and the connection they hoped for is realized. They each steal the ball very well, tying for the lead on the Blazers in Steals per minute. Rudy has a real knack for playing the game and is much better defensively than expected.

Defense
While we are doing great as far as blocking shots, rebounding, and stealing, we are letting way too many opposing players get easy baskets. Way too many lay-ins and fast-break points allowed so far. If we can shore up our transition defense and stay with our man we’d be a better defensive team. One problem with being an unselfish team like we are is that sometimes we are too eager to help out and, in doing so, leave an opponent wide open. There are certain players, like Mike Miller of the Timberwolves, who you NEVER want to leave. The minute you do you can count it as three points against you. Travis Outlaw is a bit suspect in this area, he is getting better at stealing and rebounding but still looks a half-step too slow in getting back to his man. Sergio does the same thing sometimes. He’ll go for the steal and leave his man open for the three. Granted, he gets a lot of steals that way but still… part of it is knowing who you should gamble against. NOT Steve Nash.

I have a lot more to talk about since this is the first chance I’ve had to post in a while, but I am out of time for now. Go Blazers!

PS. Get to go to 2 games this week! Tonight with Grady and Austin (vs. Kings) and Wednesday night with Brad (vs. the Heat). Should be fun!!!

Blazer Scrimmage

My Nephew Austin and Blazer Buddy Brad went with me to the Blazer scrimmage yesterday. It was the first chance to see Greg Oden at the Rose Garden and the first chance to see Rudy Fernandez play in Portland. On the way in we got to shake hands with Travis Outlaw and assistant coach Monty Williams. Brad met Ike Diogu and Coach McMillan. Austin got a Greg Oden bobble-head doll. The Blazer media took some pictures of Austin and I, so look for us on a billboard on your street soon!

Getting up close and personal with the giants is something to behold, but the real excitement came during the scrimmage. Oden looked good, he's so huge compared to everyone else on the court. He is still not quite in NBA shape but had a few moments where you could tell he is going to be a great player, probably sooner rather than later. I give him until 2010 until he's an All-Star.

The real eye-opener for me was Rudy Fernandez. He zipped some amazing passes to several players, one was a complete wrap-around the back pass to that made everyone do a double take... was it real??? Oh yes! It was REAL! He also has a great-looking 3 point shot that has a cool looking back spin on it and seems to be going 100MPH. But it doesn't just look good, it's also very accurate. If Manual Ginobli doesn't return from his injury to his old form, my bet is for Rudy Fernandez to make 6th man of the year. He is smart on the court, deceptively quick, isn't afraid to take it to the hoop, shoots well from deep, doesn't seem to be a terrible defender, and passes waaaay better than I expected.

Of the 4 players vying for the last roster spot - Steven Hill, Luke Jackson, Tatum, and Shavlik Randolph - Luke Jackson showed he could play last night. He had a couple great moves to the basket, got teammates involved, rebounded, and defended surprisingly well. Tatum was quick and hit a nice 3-pointer. Hill and Randolph were OK but didn't stand out. Too bad we're so deep at the 3 or I'd say we should keep Luke Jackson. He should definitely be on somebodies team this.

LaMarcus Aldridge absolutely went off last night. He scored 25 and made it look easy. His 12-15 foot jumper is automatic. Like Austin pointed out, he shoots it Rasheed Wallace-ish, letting it go at the apex of his reach. He also looked good down low, something I think will become a common theme this year, as he benefits from other teams trying to stop Oden from getting too deep on the block and forgetting about Aldridge.

Brandon Roy was back in form and had one really great circus shot where he flipped toward the basket after he was fouled and somehow it made it in... he seems to get at least one of those per game.

Outlaw had a few good shots and looked active around the basket. Przyabilla was his usual self, scrapping for position and rebounds and even dunking one off a pick and roll.

Martell started out slow but then got in the swing of things in the 2nd half. He had a great follow-up dunk and hit a couple nice outside shots. Brad thinks he is the odd man out and will be gone before next year. I think he's a solid player and I like him, he got much better at rebounding last year and I think he'd be fine coming off the bench to back up Outlaw. His ability play the 2-guard gives him more value too.

Brad also thinks Jerryd Bayless is another Jarret Jack; a cocky point guard who has a shooting guard mentality. I agree with Brad on those points but I think he's much better in a few different aspects: his speed is much better, he is more decisive, and he is less prone to make the same kind of bumbling mistakes Jack made famous. How many times did Jack step on the out-of-bounds line? How many times did he lose control of the ball mid-move because he couldn't decide if he should pass, shoot, or drive? I think Jerryd will make plenty of mistakes and certainly needs to involve his teammates more often, but I think he has the capacity and determination to improve and become a solid NBA point guard one day. Maybe backing up Blake for a year will teach him to think pass first.

Ike Diogu was unimpressive until late in the game when he had a nice rebound and put-back. I was hoping to see more rebounding out of him, but now I just want Channing Frye to hurry back from his injury.

Overall, I left with mucho energy and excitement for this season - we're going to be good AND fun to watch!

Aaron's NFL Post-Season predictions

NFC Wild Card:
NY Giants over Phil
Seattle over Carolina

NFC Division Playoffs:
New Orleans over NYG
Seattle over Minnesota

NFC Championship:
New Orleans over Seattle

AFC Wildcard:
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Buffalo over Pittsburgh

AFC Division Playoffs:
New England over Indianapolis
S.D. over Buffalo

AFC Championship:
San Diego over N.E.

Super Bowl:
San Diego over New Orleans

Brad's NFL Post-Season Predictions

NFC Wild Card:
Giants over Vikings
Panthers over Eagles

NFC Division Playoffs:
Panthers over Seahawks
Cowboys over Giants

NFC Conference Finals:
Cowboys over Panthers

AFC Wild Card:
Colts over Steelers
Patriots over Jets

AFC Division Playoffs:
Jaguars over Patriots
Colts over Chargers

AFC Conference final:
Jaguars over Colts

Super Bowl:
Jaguars over Cowboys